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"गुंडा": Rahul Gandhi’s aggression hides a deeper game; its not Modi but his INDI allies he’s out to outshine—37 parties, 17 UP seats, 2/65 in GJ, MP, CG—can Congress reclaim WB, Bihar, UP, or will global woke trust crumble amid a web of alliance betrayal
The chaotic scenes in Parliament recently, where a frail BJP MP, Pratap Sarangi, one of the poorest and humblest members of the house, suffered serious injuries, have exposed an unsettling side of Rahul Gandhi’s political strategy. Another MP was also injured in the scuffle. The episode hints at more than just impulsive aggression—it lays bare Gandhi’s larger ambitions. “To do even better than his granny in terms of destroying institutions of democracy and engaging in political violence.” The question is, will the government and judiciary act decisively, ensuring that the elite and connected are not shielded from accountability?
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However, let us set aside this troubling incident for now and dive into a more profound question—what exactly is happening in the Congress camp?
Political commentator Ankit Jain recently posed a thought-provoking question that sparked much debate:
“Something is going on in the background that Congress has become so aggressive. There is no reason as elections are not anytime soon.”
It’s a valid observation. After all, why this surge in hostility when the Lok Sabha elections are still months away? What lies behind this dramatic shift in Gandhi's approach? Let’s explore.
To unravel this mystery, let us begin with a cinematic analogy. Remember the classic James Bond movie Moonraker? The villain, confident in his trap, challenges Bond to shoot birds with a rifle. Unbeknownst to the villain, Bond has already spotted the sniper hidden in the trees. While pretending to aim at the bird, Bond takes a perfect shot at the sniper instead. As the sniper’s lifeless body tumbles from the tree, the villain remarks smugly, “You miss, Mr. Bond.” To which Bond coolly replies, “Did I?”
The essence of this scene is simple—Bond's real target was never the bird. His aim was clear from the start, even if it fooled the villain and much of the audience.
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And this is precisely what Rahul Gandhi is doing. His aggression is not aimed at Modi. His true targets are his so-called allies within the INDI Alliance.
This claim may sound bizarre at first glance, but stay with me as we delve deeper into the dynamics at play.
The first step in unraveling this puzzle is to understand the impact of electoral results in Maharashtra and Haryana. These results have dealt a severe blow to the Congress party's aspirations, quelling any lingering hope that the “dynasty and its brown noses” might see their fortunes return anytime soon. As some political observers have noted, “It’s 2029 now, barring black swan events.” This signals a long-term political struggle for survival rather than a short-term sprint to power.
A subtle yet noticeable shift in the tone of the party’s loyal media supporters and YouTube “servant armies” suggests that even the Congress ecosystem has accepted this harsh reality. The usual bravado has given way to cautious recalibration. The focus has moved from quick wins to planning for the distant future, with digital advertising emerging as a critical battleground.
In the process of researching this political chessboard, an interesting discovery surfaced: the INDI Alliance comprises 37 parties. On the surface, that sounds like a formidable coalition. However, a closer look reveals a different story. A significant number of these parties are negligible even within their home states, with leaders so obscure that many don’t even have Wikipedia pages. How many people, for instance, are familiar with G. Devarajan of the Forward Bloc? Admittedly, even I wasn’t aware of him until now.
Among the 37, only a handful hold any real sway. It becomes evident that nearly all of these parties, except for the communists, are “dynastic shopfronts.” This creates a unique dilemma for Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
They are trapped in what can only be described as a “catch-22 situation.” The alliance itself has become the primary roadblock preventing the Congress from reclaiming its former dominance. Instead of providing an opportunity for growth, it has turned into an obstacle, limiting the party’s influence in various states. Yet, stepping away from the alliance would be even more disastrous. Such a move would push the Congress closer to “total irrelevance in even more states.”
The strategy? Rahul Gandhi seemingly has no choice but to weaken the alliance from within, dismantling its cohesion over time. This allows Congress to consolidate its position without overtly severing ties—a delicate yet ruthless balancing act.
The good news for Rahul Gandhi is that there is no real challenger for the Prime Ministerial chair among the alliance’s leaders. Most of the alliance’s dynasts are content to operate within their state-specific domains, deriving benefits without staking claims to national leadership. While Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal remain wildcard contenders, it is safe to say that the road to a unified challenge against Gandhi is steep for them. For now, this plays to his advantage.
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The bad news is that each of them and all of them together are making sure Rahul Gandhi can never get there.
In the state polls, the regional and one-state parties have carved out their territories so effectively that Rahul Gandhi’s Congress is left scrambling for scraps. These parties ensure their survival by staking claims on the majority of seats. For example, in Punjab, AAP didn’t offer Congress a single seat, while in Kerala, the communists kept everything to themselves, and in Bengal, TMC shut Congress out completely. A few leaders like Stalin in Tamil Nadu showed some generosity, perhaps calculating that having a cooperative Central government might benefit their state. Even then, the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister's move felt strategic rather than generous. Similarly, Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh handed Congress 17 seats, a decision widely criticized as overly lenient. And rightly so—Congress’s performance in UP paled in comparison to that of the Samajwadi Party (SP), exposing the inefficiency of the alliance for Congress.
In regions where there are no dominant regional players, such as Rajasthan (RJ), Gujarat (GJ), Madhya Pradesh (MP), or Chhattisgarh (CG), the Congress faces an uphill battle against a dominant BJP. The numbers tell a grim tale: the dotted alliance collectively managed only 2 seats across Gujarat, MP, and Chhattisgarh out of 65—an embarrassing outcome by any standard.
Looking ahead to 2029, when Rahul Gandhi will be 58, his political challenge isn’t Modi, who will be nearing 80 by then. The real threats come from Akhilesh Yadav (55), Arvind Kejriwal (60), and the young and ambitious Tejashwi Yadav (40). Even Mamata Banerjee (73), despite her age, has no intention of making things easy for Rahul. For Mamata, blocking Rahul’s path to power in 2029 would essentially end his political career, leaving Congress irreparably weakened and the Gandhis sidelined. As one commentator put it, “Even India Today or Ravish Pandey may give up on launching him or declaring him as arrived and ready.” If that happens, Priyanka Vadra’s dreams of passing the political legacy to her son will also be dashed.
Unlike the Thackerays—Uddhav and Aditya, who fell into political oblivion after missteps—these regional dynasties are seasoned players. They navigate the political chessboard with the ruthlessness and precision of battle-hardened strategists. Consider Omar Abdullah, who has deftly positioned himself after his electoral victories. He operates independently, refusing to bow to any central power. Had Modi been as inclusive as Vajpayee, Abdullah might even have joined the NDA, adding a layer of complexity to the political landscape.
The Gandhis’ predicament is unmistakable: they are at the mercy of their so-called allies, receiving either crumbs or nothing at all. Ironically, the media that once championed Congress now critiques them for not being “generous” enough, a euphemism for failing to win elections and fulfill the IOUs accumulated by these media houses through years of sycophantic reporting.
Even if the Congress somehow manages a “victory” with this fragmented group, it will likely be symbolic at best and futile at worst. For the Congress to emerge as a serious contender, the BJP would have to collapse entirely in states without strong regional allies—places like Gujarat, MP, or Rajasthan. Only then could Congress gain enough seats to demand the Prime Minister’s chair without appearing childish.
Even in such a scenario, it proves a larger point: Modi isn’t Rahul’s biggest issue. The real challenge lies within the alliance itself and the regional forces determined to block his ascent. If Congress remains the default Plan B for voters tiring of BJP, any gains will feel more like a consolation prize rather than a legitimate resurgence.
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Rahul Gandhi’s Aggression: A Strategy or a Desperate Gamble?
With the current state of affairs, “if I were Soros, Politburo or the deep state, I would be worried. This state of affairs must change.” The alignment of the woke left in the USA and the Stalinist left in India with Rahul Gandhi is no secret. The trust they place in him stems not from his victories, but from his alignment with their broader ideological and geopolitical goals. As pointed out, “At this point, the Stalinists don’t even mind that they can’t win anymore – Rahul winning is just as good, for their Polpotist pogrom on Sanatana Dharma or for Beijing’s plan for South Asia.”
For these forces, the other dynasts in the alliance simply don’t fit the mold. The global woke ecosystem cannot rely on leaders who do not harbor animosity towards Sanatana Dharma, who aren’t obedient to the deep state, or who lack a commitment to their vision. It isn’t far-fetched to imagine a scenario where the left in India may decide to “end the farce and merge their party with Congress.”
The stakes for Rahul Gandhi are sky-high. He is likely being urged to “up his game and try to grab more minds and vote share from his own allies as they are an easier grab than going after hardcore Modi voters.” The calculus is simple: for the global Soros-woke ecosystem, a UPA revival with Mamata, Akhilesh, or any other leader at the helm offers no significant gains. Their entire investment in shaping the Indian political landscape depends on Congress reclaiming its former glory by dominating critical states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal.
But the road ahead is treacherous. The Congress party’s “over-reliance on the minority vote has reached a point of negative return.” While Priyanka Vadra’s recent “Palestine tote bag drama” signals a continued focus on this demographic, it underscores a mathematical truth: you can only secure 100% of a vote share. Attempts to exceed that are futile. These gestures, as theatrical as they seem, appear aimed at ensuring Congress retains its base, especially when its own allies are vying for the same vote bank.
The alliance dynamics further complicate this strategy. “Where the alliance ‘partner’ is secure that the M-vote won’t desert them, Congress gets the short end of the stick – like in WB or JK. Where the current leaseholder of the M-vote is insecure – like in UP where Akhilesh wasn’t that sure, he could be arm-twisted into giving 17 seats. Where it hardly matters – like TN – Congress gets thrown crumbs.”
This dynamic explains Congress’s periodic flirtation with Islamist agendas and causes like Palestine. It’s a political calculation designed to maintain relevance in regions where it is losing its grip.
Delhi presents an interesting case. “Kejriwal seems to think he is like Mamata Didi – he can tell Rahul off and yet keep it.” However, the stakes for Kejriwal couldn’t be higher. A loss in Delhi would spell the end of his national ambitions, and this would send shockwaves through the alliance. Leaders like Akhilesh Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav would be forced to rethink their strategies, knowing their political bases could be obliterated unless they realign themselves with the Congress high command at 10 Janpath.
Ultimately, Rahul Gandhi’s aggression ensures that “Congress and the Crown Prince are always on the news, occupying the front pages, edging out others that can pose a challenge.” Whether this approach is a masterstroke or a misstep remains to be seen. However, what is certain is that for Rahul and the Congress, the battle for survival is as much against their allies as it is against the BJP.
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