Presently, the world is facing an unprecedented security challenge in light of the Ukraine war and tensions around the Taiwan Strait. The global power dynamics are generating a situation of Cold War 2.0.

On one hand, the collusion between China and Russia is leading the charge of aggression against the western countries. On the other hand, western countries are propounding the idea of Global NATO. In this regrouping and rebalancing, India seeks to remain independent and free of any grouping. In addition, with two rogue neighbors, India seeks to enhance its own power in the event of a security crisis.

The IAF since its inception has played a strategic role in our national defence and security. In a recently held global survey, the Indian Air Force has been ranked the third most powerful air power in the world. The CAS covered the evolving geopolitical landscape in the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine War, New Generation Warfare, China and Pakistan collusivity and its impact on India.

IAF Looks Ready for Future Wars

In the 20th Major General Samir Sinha Memorial Lecture on 30th August 2022, the Chief of the Air Staff (CAS), Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari, highlighted various prospects of the Indian Air Force’s preparedness for future wars.

He then elucidated comprehensively on the transformation of IAF as an aerospace power covering: enhancement of operational capability, drone and counter-drone capabilities, new-age cyber and information-warfare, inventory management system, stocking and indigenization measures to mitigate effects of supply chain disruption from Russia, the mental transformation of cadre to adapt to new technologies, Atmnirbhar Bharat initiative, AD Command, and Theaterisation, paperless office, digitization of man management, and electronic planning and implementation of air ops.

"The current geopolitical situation necessitates the Indian Air Force to prepare for intense and small duration operations at a short notice. This new paradigm of high-intensity operations, coupled with minimal build-up time would require major changes in terms of operational logistics," Air Chief Marshal Vivek Ram Chaudhari said. 

Delivering a lecture on the ‘Transformation of the Indian Air Force: Present Status and the Way Ahead’, CAS said, “What we are witnessing today, and the war in Ukraine provides us some lessons, is that the nature of warfare is changing. Now wars are of blended nature. These are hybrid wars. The enemy resorts to asymmetric methods and aims at disproportionate impacts, which one has to fight conventionally and beyond by developing multi-domain capabilities”.

While talking about the comprehensive plan of the Indian Air Force capability building in the future course of wars, he enumerated defense equipment. According to CAS, India will have the following numbers of offensive and defensive strike-capable equipment for future wars.

He also talked comprehensively about, “the transformation of IAF as an aerospace power covering: enhancement of operational capability, drone and counter-drone capabilities, new-age cyber and information-warfare, inventory management system, stocking and indigenization measures to mitigate effects of supply chain disruption from Russia, the mental transformation of cadre to adapt to new technologies, Atmnirbhar Bharat initiative, AD Command and Theaterisation, paperless office, digitization of man management, and electronic planning and implementation of air ops”.

Two-Front War is Inevitable

While enumerating the IAF’s future capabilities, CAS Chaudhari also highlighted the looming clouds of a two-front war. Redefining the two-front war, CAS reportedly has downgraded the threat from Pakistan. According to him, a two-front war is a single war in two sectors, one of which is China, One comes from the east (Arunachal Pradesh), while the other comes from the north (Ladakh). He also ensured the preparedness of India for both short-term as well as long-term threats from China.

India’s Security Concernation around the Chinese border is in consonance with recent developments. From the Galwan clash in 2020 to July 17 of this year, 16 rounds of military talks have been completed. No round of military talks has resulted in a breakthrough in resolving the dispute and the situation has remained tense in the area around the clash point.

Moreover, China has enhanced its military presence in sensitive areas. Reports suggest that China has deployed 50,000 to 60,000 soldiers in the area and is also increasing its military infrastructure. In addition, as a part of a new border management strategy with India along LAC, China is constructing “Dual-use villages”. These villages appear to be civilian settlements, but in reality, they are extending cantonment buildings with storage facilities, reinforced bunkers, and connecting roads to possible tunnels.

Indian intelligence agencies say 628 such villages (Chinese prefer to call them “border defence villages” ) have come up on the 3448 km long LAC since 2017 in phases. “The process of commissioning and installation of these villages has been so well calibrated that it is only four years later now that the pattern is becoming clear,” said an intelligence veteran who has followed China’s border management closely during his long career.

“All hopes China had entertained of roping India into the BRI and opening up its huge market through the Himalayas were neutralized by India’s resolute stand at Doklam to oppose Chinese intrusions into Bhutanese territory. That is when the PLA decided to militarise the LAC with extended cantonments,” the intelligence veteran said. The new villages built by China along India's border are a cause of concern, India’s Eastern Army Commander Lieutenant General Manoj Pande has been quoted as saying recently. The 2021 US defense department report to Congress just mentions “ sometimes in 2020, the PRC built a large 100home civilian village inside disputed territory between the PRC’s Tibet Autonomous Region and India’s Arunachal Pradesh state in the eastern sector of the LAC.” The report observed: “The PRC’s military-civil Fusion (MCF) Development Strategy is a key part of its defense sector reform.”

The Chinese always dread Tibetan forces under Indian command like the Special Frontier Force as capable of penetrating their lines even in deep winter for behind-the-lines strategic reconnaissance and possible sabotage operations during the conflict. “An integrated network of such villages can prevent penetration of special units and help intercept them,” says an ITBP veteran, again unwilling to be named for lack of media clearance. But the former lieutenant general says these villages can hide regular combat soldiers for sudden surprise action against Indian forces. “ If several of such villages are closely connected, the strike units can gather in one village and swiftly move into another without detection for an across LAC operation,” he said. Intelligence sources say the six hundred plus dual-use Border Defence villages can house up to 2,70,000 people. 'The villages look vacant now but over the next few months, they will all be populated with carefully selected and screened people like ex-soldiers, people militia, and select Tibetans of mixed parentage. The process of populating these villages will take a while both because screening and security vetting takes time and because the Chinese want to conceal a big population movement," said the veteran intelligence official.

In this scenario, it is very important to strengthen the security infrastructure around the Chinese border. Also, the capacity building of the Indian Air Force has become imperative in light of difficult terrain and unfavorable geographical conditions. As a regular army will have limited scope to reach the high altitude and peak areas, air power would be playing a differentiator role in case of wars.

In furtherance of this, the recent geopolitical overhaul in the world pushes India not only to strengthen its forces but also to strengthen its domestic capabilities. To maintain strategic independence in world politics, Aatmnirbharta is the key to defence production. Also, to avoid war, India needs to be prepared. That’s what the Indian armed forces are doing.

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